Psychophant's Rants
28.2.13
Shock and awe
This week I have visited Ludwigshafen, the nominal and actual heart of BASF, the biggest chemical company in the world, and the biggest and best integrated chemical site. For an industrial chemist it is something like visiting St. Peter’s for a Catholic, an impressive site (and the whole city is in some way or another BASF) with a load of historical baggage, good and bad, and in this case a glimpse of what may become the future. Heady stuff, but uninteresting to those that do not know about the Haber-Bosch process, or the changes aniline dyes brought to the world, or even the monster that was IG Farben.When you deal with a company of that size, most standard reference points become useless. Traditionally sellers invite buyers, but here we were at BASF’s own luxury restaurant, drinking their exclusive wines from their dedicated cellar, staying at BASF’s exclusive business hotel, or using their own fleet of executive chauffeured cars. Shock and awe of the first degree. They had to refuse a 2 € USB pen drive, however, as it would be an inappropriate gift, except that it contained copies of all the presentations and videos we had presented, so that was ok. We spent seven hours together with two senior purchasers and it was all exceedingly nice, except for the five minutes when they rejected our initial offer, made their counteroffer/ultimatum, we quickly discussed internally and accepted as quite reasonable. Then back to the nice comradeship, discussion of potential areas to develop and planning for the future, which of course includes a glimpse of what they know about the future, which is more than we do. Or futures, as one was the rosy 2020 from the stakeholders estimates, and the other the grim expectations from the guys in the front of Chemical development. We are some kind of side bet, an assurance against moderately unlikely events, third supplier for a strategic product. In this case it would be a possible new development our competitors (and in a small measure us) have been working for years, combined with high oil prices and a weakening of the euro, making our main product scarce. There is also another factor with these companies, that in most commercial meetings you become aware that they wonder if it would not be cheaper to buy you, something that is not so easy with our huge competitors.
While we were in a BASF car breaking the 200 kph barrier to get back to the airport, I already had the orders for March, and even a nonconformity complaint that they did not send before because we were not an established supplier, something we suddenly had become in the previous minutes.
22.2.13
Austerity
Like many readers of Mr. Krugman, I have long wondered why so many economic bodies in Western countries kept austerity as a strong policy. Coming from a scientific background, even if my economic groundwork is shaky, the numbers and models were clear, so it was clear austerity would not work for economic recovery. However of late I have been wondering whether business as usual is actually a desirable target, or if the current debt driven system is really sustainable.It started half in jest, considering if this was a plot both to reduce politicians’ maneuver margin and to weaken the financial establishment hold on the economy. Unlike the Americans (and sympathizers in UK) the target of austerity here is not to reduce the government’s weight on society, but to make it run leaner while filling roughly the same space. A very European difference. When you look forward, a leaner state and a population already used to a decreased standard of living seems like a good starting point towards weathering fossil fuel scarcity, weather change disturbances, and the coming shift in world power. It may make no sense from an economic point of view, but balancing your act makes sense from a societal point of view. Like paying your debts before moving away.
This hypothetical master plan of bureaucrats and analysts however faces two difficulties. It is hard to let go of something we believe we own (like the right to free/cheap education) even if we cannot afford it. And politicians still want to play with the dwindling resources to support their own agenda, causing bigger imbalances in the austerity experience, which is a detached way of saying that part of the society will hurt, and some will hurt badly, because those that pay the politicians want to keep their pie share. However I think we have mechanisms for peaceful protest and change, and this austerity is highlighting the bad (and some good) in politicians, an important requirement to break their stranglehold in government, and so, promoting change. When you rebuild society you want those that follow the rules in and those who intend to game those same rules out.
My fault was, I am afraid, that I had stopped looking at the whole picture, because the powers that be try to make us focus on parts of it, instead of seeing the collision course with reality that we are in. It is difficult to say what way will minimize suffering and let us reach a sustainable system sooner or painlessly, but certainly focusing on the economy returning to “Business as usual” is not one of the right ways, when that “as usual” has a quite short expiration date. We have to reduce material consumption, of all kinds, in the advanced countries. If a forced austerity is the way to curb a runaway financial sector and to have people aware of what is affordable and what is not, I welcome it. We humans do not survive as individuals, we survive as groups, as cultures. If we want to live on, we need to adapt to the coming reality, and the first step for that is to accept that change is coming, and some knowledge of what it is about. As someone who likes where he is, and expects to stick around for 40-50 years more, this matters, even without thinking of the coming generations.
We have long had people proposing more equality unwilling to lose any of their own perks, or green proponents that do not want to adapt their lifestyle to reality. Maybe a forced course downslope will help us get closer to what is really sustainable. Because instead of the minor effect of individual effort and the indifference of the majority, here it reaches to all of us. It is also a time of testing, when we will face tough decisions, like leaving people outside the social network, or whether we keep make-do jobs in the current situation, with more people than jobs, and a young generation probably not educated for the jobs they will have.
Interesting times. As usual.
20.2.13
Inner Nationality
It is making the rounds, and I am sure it is part of some nefarious info-gathering scheme, but I am amused by this test, Your Inner Nationality, that with a few yes/no questions assigns you a nationality. Taking it a couple of times I end up with varying Scandinavian countries, usually Denmark.There could be some basis to it, as Danes are represented at a disproportionately high level among my friends and acquaintances, but I suspect the test refers to Copenhagen instead of the whole Denmark. Due to the small size of the country, it is easier to see a divide that you can see in most countries, so that the difference in culture and worldview is lower between middle class people in big cosmopolitan cities like London or Copenhagen than it is between those citizens and people living in a less well connected town in the same country.
Not long ago I used to be an optimist, hoping for a true European Union, and that the internet would allow people no matter where they were to become as tolerant and worldwise as many big city citizens. What we actually had was a clear example of the ghetto effect, so people just looked for people like themselves to hang out virtually, instead of broadening the world view by exposing themselves to many different people, ideas, customs and food. In the city you just cannot avoid being exposed to new ideas, new objects, other cultures, even other esthetics, unless you fully isolate yourself from it, and then you cannot say you live in it, no matter what your address is.
The internet, however, allows you to skip most things you do not want to. It is like teleportation, travelling without the actual travel, and I hope we can agree that it is the act of travelling rather than arriving what changes you and make you go. Because the destination is a known factor, but the act of travelling is where you can experience the new, the surprise, the shock.
It is easy to go virtual travelling on the internet, and fortunately many people do so, exploring random pathways, checking strange cooking, weird customs or looking for actual facts. Nevertheless they feel as a minority, compared to the many limited to a small comfort zone and those weird internet memes that somehow cut across cultures.
Yet that is a reason to hope. That Gangnam Style becomes a worldwide phenomenon shows that my younger self maybe was not so wrong. By small increments a common worldwide culture is being built, and put in place. Planck said that Science changes with funerals. I fear Culture does so, too, if you consider ideas instead of people, and the rate of ideas being born (and dying), my only optimism may have been in the time required. That culture may not be one I feel I belong too, but I hope it is one I can live with.
Yet there is a poisonous idea that keeps a good health. The test above should have had the question “Do you believe in Nationality?” While that idea still lives, people will keep dying of it.
18.2.13
The Hospital room experience
Some
time ago I read about this design initiative, Super Bed Wards and I felt at the time that it was the right approach, but in the detached way of someone
who has never been hospitalized and whose experience is limited to visits to
sick friends and relatives, as well as ER. It all changed a few weeks ago, when
I spent upwards of 100 hours keeping my wife company on her six day stay at
the hospital.
There
are a couple of differences between the Spanish and the Danish health services,
I am sure. We have both public and private hospitals, though even the private
ones are mostly financed through public resources (the private health industry
is complementary to the public one, being reimbursed by the public service for
all procedures, stays and expenses the public one covers, at fixed rates). That
allows insurance companies to offer full coverage at competitive rates, and
even invest in infrastructure knowing they have a guaranteed income.
Another
difference, though I may be mistaken, is the policy on visitors in the ward. Here in Spain it is
expected (even relied upon) that someone will spend the night with a
non-contagious patient. During visit hours there may be a real crowd, two people will
stay most of the day, and someone will spend the night in. Which is why I spent
so much time in a hospital.
It
was a quite new private clinic, with individual rooms with a nice en-suite
bathroom (and being Spain, a couch that becomes a bed and a comfortable
lounging armchair). The first day we had been warned she would be in severe
pain, so we outraged friends and family by forbidding visits (following her doctor recommendations, who of course asumed I would be staying). It is not really mistrust of the nursing service, at least now, nor
compensating for a lack of nurses, as most of what I did would have taken only
a few minutes (warning the drip has run out, whether other bags are full, or if she is in
severe pain…). It may help that familiarity lets me interpret a set of
incoherent grunts as pain while trying to move the hand, or that the morphine is working, but I suppose it is
minor. At times it allows the nurses to relax (and I am sure they had marked
who was alone who had a companion, and how friendly/reasonable/reliable that
person was), but at times it means an extra burden dealing with a vocal complainer.
On
the other hand it was a deliberate choice in the furnishings of the room that normally only two people could stay
comfortably, to keep visits standing, and reduce the visit. Another
feature is an excellent cafeteria, so you move most people outside the room
into the cafeteria (and I made all my meals for four days there, so I can
confirm it was good quality and cheap), a refuge also when certain visitors
come calling. In this case it was even more important because the clinic is
specialized in childbirth, and babies attract even more people to visit, and
lots of impromptu celebrations. That also affected the mood, as there were many
happy people, and very few sad ones, as most other patients were recovering
from surgery, without the melancholy of a chronic, hopeless illness.
All
of this to reach the conclusion that there is no perfect room design, and that
maybe a certain specialization within plants or even hospitals may be better.
Only four rooms per floor were well equipped to handle fully handicapped
patients in the bathroom, because they relied on people like me helping in
getting up, or holding firm while taking the first shower (getting moderately
soaked in the process, an area for improvement). This is a social factor that
right now is general, but it may not be in the future. Other aspects, like free
wifi, help pass the long hours, not only for the healthy people, but also the
patient (benefits of a brand new iPad mini). In our case it made unnecessary
the big plasma TV, too bright and noisy.
Lots
of small factors adding to the quality of the stay. The discussion with the
kitchen about what meant lactose intolerant (after a couple of near misses, and
an abdominal incision is not the best moment for gases and diarrhea).
Discussing the daily planning with the chief nurse in the morning, The too high
bed that made getting up unaided impossible for someone 1.63 m tall. The noisy
air heating, and lack of radiators. The huge window, impossible to dim fully,
with a streetlight just close by. The cleaners passing by after breakfast,
before the crowds arrive (visit time from 12:00 to 20:00). The wardrobe,
hotel-like. The three shifts, the good, the bad and the ugly, guaranteeing a
rested crew (except in week-ends, when there are only two). The huge parking
area and easy public transport (though at times we would have preferred longer
transit times to keep visitors away). And so on.
